[讀書會] 糧食問題

How to feed the world

Nov 19th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Business as usual will not do it

IN 1974 Henry Kissinger, then America’s secretary of state, told the first world food conference in Rome that no child would go to bed hungry within ten years. Just over 35 years later, in the week of another United Nations food summit in Rome, 1 billion people will go to bed hungry.
(全文在此)

OUTLINE：

Robert Malthus 馬爾薩斯：

“The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio (等比成長). Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio (等差成長). “

“Green revolution” of agriculture 綠色革命

The technology improvement of crop planting helps us producing food in an efficient way.

In theory, the food we produced can feed everyone on earth. However, so many complex reasons that contribute to a bizarre situation: we live in a world with hunger and overweight.

人類今日的糧食生產總量，超越了歷史上的任一時刻。然而在此同時，地球上處於飢餓狀態的人口卻超過十分之一。諷刺的是，伴隨著這八億飢餓人口的是另一個歷史記錄，那就是超重人口的數目達到十億人，遠大於飢餓中的人數。

Food crisis 糧食危機 & Financial crisis 金融危機

Food crisis was masked by the financial crisis.

Before the crisis broke out the oil price, the food price and all commodities prices were soaring.

· Not uneven distribution, but the capacity of agriculture and structure of food market.

· By 2050 the world’s population will rise by a third, from 6.7 billion to almost 9 billion

· New land, more water, climate change

Food prices keep rising; the Economist suggests we need to do two things:

1. Invest in the productive capacity of agriculture.

· An industrial thinking: more investment, more production

· Not organic, sustainable, but GM food, chemical fertilizers, and industrial agriculture

· No matter how, shocking by the soaring price, government have doubled the money

2. Improve the operation of food market.

· Farmer’s access to market: a reliable market is the incentive to grow more.

· Government tend to be self-reliance on food, food security -> distrust of market and trade -> subsidies ->block the free trade and free market -> protectionism

Question:

1. Some people argue that the pursuing of organic food is impossible to feed the world, what do you think about that?
2. Is it necessary for a country to become food self-sufficiency? Why or why not?

柏林圍牆倒塌 Capitalism and Democracy

Twenty years have gone by since the collapse of Berlin Wall in 1989. It was a remarkably historical event from every aspect. Not only because it brought to an end of years of conflict between East and West, but also it announced the victory of capitalism and democracy in an ideological war with communism. However, capitalist democracy did not win completely. Many countries around the world today are adopting a modified capitalism rather a pure one. And democracy has bumped into a number of difficulties along the way.

From the viewpoint of the West, capitalism will bring in democracy eventually, because the emerging middle class in a capitalist society will surely have an appetite for liberty beyond the purely economic. When the Soviet Union was broke up, it seemed to prove the inefficiency of communism. Former communism countries in central and east Europe have made themselves embrace the capitalism and free market, the governing principals of commerce. And they spread out through globalization. The free movements of goods, capitals, personnel, and ideas around the world have boosted the prosperous economy, so few places openly oppose it.

However, there is still a huge gap between the economic freedom in capitalism and the political freedom in democracy. For some countries like China or other members of WTO maintain an authoritarian regime while participating in global economy. With the support of their authoritarian government, large multinational corporations are attracted to invest in the local market, which promotes economic development and, at the same time, stabilizes the legacy of their rule. Therefore, the process has led to a gradual move toward capitalism but away from democracy.

On the other hand, with the free trade and globalization, China and other emerging giants are catching up with developed countries, which creates fear in the West about losing relative economic power and leads to calls for protectionism among public. In a democratic society, if these concerns continue to grow the public will vote a relatively conservative government and reverse the process of free trade and free market, the important elements of capitalism.

In short, the hypothesis of a relationship between capitalism and democracy is never definite and we should not take it for granted.