Robert Malthus once said that “[t]he power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.” If this were true, the production of food will never be able to keep up with the growth of population.
However, thanks to the Green Revolution in agriculture, Malthus’s prediction did not come true. Technological improvement in crop planting has helped us produce food in a more efficient way. We can lower inputs into the production process, but at the same time double or triple production. New technologies have brought food production to record levels. In theory, the food we produce could feed everyone on earth. But for many complex reasons we face a bizarre situation: we live in a world both with hunger and obesity. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nation) data, 1.02 billion people are undernourished worldwide in 2009, which means that out of every six people, one person is going hungry. Ironically, while some are starving to death, there are more than one billion people who are overweight. This is almost equal to the number of people who are facing hunger.
We have regarded the worldwide hunger as a problem of uneven distribution for a long time, because we do believe there is enough of food for everyone. Nevertheless, the food crisis during 2007-2008, right before the financial crisis broke out, revealed a new aspect to the problem. Because the oil price rose, food and commodities prices also rose. Suddenly, we did not have enough food. Making the situation worse, many crops were being used for biofuel rather than to feed people. The food problem today is not only the result of uneven distribution, but also the limited capacity of agriculture and the failure of the food market.
The outbreak of the financial crisis has driven people’s attention away. But even with economic recovery, the food crisis remains unresolved. By 2050 the world’s population will rise by a third, from 6.7 billion to almost 9 billion. The demand for agriculture goods will rise 70% and demand for meat will double. We will not be able to meet these increases without farmers clearing large amount of new land or using up lots more water. However, farmland is often transferred to more lucrative uses, while clean water supplies are so limited in some parts of the world that there is not even enough to drink. Moreover, farmers still have to fight global climate change and its attendant unpredictable rainfall and devastating natural disasters.
The Economist suggests we need to do two things to prevent the impending crisis. First of all, invest in the productive capacity of agriculture. Money invested in agriculture has declined since the Green Revolution took place. More investment will lead to more production. Investment in agriculture can be used to provide farmers with better seed and fertilizers or to develop genetically modified crops. Shocked into action by soaring food prices, governments and international organizations working in affected areas have doubled the amounts invested in food production.
Secondly, we need to improve the operation of the food market. Governments tend to favor self-reliance on food for security reasons. In other words, countries produce their own food even without a comparative advantage, so their agriculture relies on subsides from the government. This leads to market failure as protectionism blocks the free trade and free market.
To feed 9 billion people, farming needs to be as efficient a possible. That requires markets and trade, but also more investment.
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