Economist - Lousy president, terrible precedent

摘要

不穩定的政治，是拉丁美洲長久以來揮之不去的夢魘。但自從拉美國家實施民主政治以來，過去這20年已經少見此種事件發生。除了2002年，委內瑞拉總統查唯茲透過召開憲政會議使自己得以無限期連任總統後，曾短暫的引起反對的騷動。

宏都拉斯的總統Zelaya，試圖模仿查唯茲的模式，透過公投召開憲政會議獲得獨裁的權力。但此舉遭到宏國國會與最高法院的反對，於是，發動政變將總統趕出國。此舉動在法理上站不住腳，因為宏國並沒有透過憲政程序發動彈劾，反而運用軍方力量將他驅逐出境，在拉美民主進程中立下了一個不好的先例。也因此受到國際的譴責，紛紛要求宏都拉斯讓Zelaya復職。

事實上，Zelaya在國內支持度很低，他也不太可能秤心如意的透過改變憲政體制。這件事情的發生，不經意的透露出拉美區域，對於委內瑞拉總統查唯茲建立政權的方式在拉美造成的政治氣氛。當年拉美民眾覺得受夠了偏右的政治取向，才紛紛開始左傾。或許現在會因為同樣的理由而厭倦起這些偏左的份子。

政變後的宏都拉斯發現自己孤立無援，鄰近拉美國家以及美國都不支持這樣的舉動。伴隨而來的經濟制裁等手段，也許有機會讓賽拉亞有條件的復職。解決這場紛爭事小，困難的是如何防止拉丁美洲這些權力過大的總統侵害他們的民主政治。

(全文如下)

Lousy president, terrible precedent

Jul 2nd 2009
From The Economist print edition

Manuel Zelaya should be restored to power. He should also be forced to respect the constitution

IT WAS a flashback to a nightmare that Latin Americans hoped they had awoken from for good. Heavily armed soldiers burst into the presidential residence in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, in the early hours, arrested the pyjama-clad president, Manuel Zelaya, and bundled him off to neighbouring Costa Rica. Once all too familiar, such events have become rare in Latin America over the past two decades as democracy has put down roots. It was the first coup in the region since the confused ousting of Jean-Bertrand Aristide in Haiti in 2003, and a brief rising against Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez in 2002.

In Honduras the soldiers acted with the support of the courts and the legislature, whose head, Roberto Micheletti, was sworn in as president to serve out the remainder of Mr Zelaya’s term until January next year (see page 43). Even so, as Barack Obama rightly said, the ousting of Mr Zelaya was “illegal” and set “a terrible precedent”. It was universally and emphatically condemned in Latin America. It is vital for democracy in the region that it should be reversed.

But to stop there is to miss some of what is at stake. Mr Zelaya, a businessman, alienated his own party and his country’s political establishment by his decision last year to forge an alliance with Mr Chávez, joining the Venezuelan’s anti-American block. In return, he got aid and political advice. Mr Zelaya felt emboldened to organise a referendum on convening a constituent assembly—the very device Mr Chávez used to establish an autocracy. Since such an exercise violated the constitution and both Congress and the courts were firmly opposed to it, this unleashed a conflict of powers.

Oddly, the Honduran constitution contains no provision for impeachment. Even so, kicking Mr Zelaya out was wholly the wrong way to try to resolve the dispute. It was stupid, too: Mr Zelaya was fairly unpopular and unlikely to get his way. That it happened regardless shows the deep fear of Mr Chávez among political establishments across Latin America. He is a particular ogre in the small, mainly poor and unstable countries of Central America, which are also beset by drug traffickers. Venezuela’s boss is mistrusted both for his meddling and for the example he has set of coming to power democratically and then stacking the rules in his favour. One of his allies, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, next-door to Honduras, stole a municipal election last November, for instance.
For change, stick to the electoral road

Yet fear is turning to paranoia. If many left-of-centre governments, of varying political hues, have come to power in Latin America it is because voters became fed up with their right-of-centre predecessors. Some are now starting to tire of leftist and populist incumbents too. This week Argentines served notice on the Kirchner family that their dominance is over (see article). Would-be election riggers in the region will find it hard to prevent the alternation that is the essence of democracy.

Honduras’s new government finds itself friendless beyond its borders. Restoring Mr Zelaya to office should not be impossible. It will require economic pressure but also some kind of deal with Mr Micheletti’s regime, perhaps involving an early election. Honduras’s neighbours should help in this respect, as should the United States, which has considerable influence in Honduras and a strong interest in a stable, democratic Central America. By his forthright condemnation of the coup Mr Obama has ensured that he will not be outflanked by Mr Chávez over Honduras. The more difficult question for Latin America is how to prevent over-mighty presidents from undermining their own democratic institutions. Once that practice ceases, coups really will be a thing of the past.


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